Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.)

The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate one more time (by 25bps) in February but there is a risk that the tightening cycle is already over.

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