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Reassessing our forecasts for US Treasuries

With the Fed still clearly in a hawkish mood, we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. We now expect it to be around its current level at the end of this year, in contrast with our previous forecast of a decline. But we still think the 10-year yield will fall over 2023 and 2024, as inflationary pressures ease and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening.

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