Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie

We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be the main drivers of the Canadian dollar, and will push it lower against the US dollar over the next few years. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Canada service
Jonathan Petersen Markets Economist
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FX Markets Update

Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira

We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the currency.

22 October 2021

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down

The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is somewhat surprising in light of the stronger-than-expected inflation data released Wednesday. But we think those data add to evidence that inflationary pressures in the US remain strong, and will gradually push Treasury yields, and the dollar, higher. And while this week’s rebound in risky assets suggests that concerns about the global economic recovery are fading, the latest activity data from China and the US (due on Monday) are likely to set the tone for FX markets next week.

15 October 2021

FX Markets Update

We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar

We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback higher.

15 October 2021

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FX Markets Update

What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets

The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate much further. We think the currencies of some economies with strong ties to China will come under pressure, too.

16 September 2021

Capital Daily

We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over

Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.  

10 September 2021

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar remains on the back foot after August payrolls

The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies, leaving the trade-weighted dollar near its lowest level since its jump after the June FOMC meeting

3 September 2021
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