Comments by ECB officials suggest that a slowdown in the pace of tightening, from a 75bp to a 50bp hike, still looks likely in December. But it’s not yet a done deal, with some officials seemingly still preferring another 75 bp hike. Meanwhile, a start to QT early next year is becoming more likely. Next week, we expect to learn that inflation in Germany and the euro-zone broadly held steady in November and that the ESI ticked up in the same month. Otherwise, euro-zone unemployment probably fell in October.
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