Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide clues about both policy direction and succession plans after Putin (possibly) steps down in 2024. Any announcements of amendments to this year’s budget may signal a shift in fiscal policy, which had been hinted at prior to the election. That said, the wholesale reforms needed to reinvigorate the economy seem unlikely to happen and we think Putin 4.0 is likely to be characterised by sluggish growth.
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