MNB to stick with slower pace of tightening

Hungary’s central bank (MNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle today, raising its base rate by a smaller-than-expected 15bp to 1.65%, and the post-meeting communications signalled that future rate hikes will remain at the smaller end of the spectrum. We have tweaked our interest rate forecasts and now expect the base rate to rise to 2.10% by the end of this year (previously 2.20%).
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Surging virus cases and the re-imposition of lockdowns

A renewed wave of COVID-19 cases has prompted some governments to reimpose strict containment measures across Emerging Europe and talk of lockdowns is now becoming more widespread. The experience so far during the pandemic is that tighter containment measures need not result in a large hit to activity. But the latest virus waves add to the growing near-term headwinds in the region from rising inflation and supply disruptions to industry and we think that recoveries will slow sharply in Q4.

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Emerging Europe Economics Update

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21 October 2021

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Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Aug.)

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Emerging Europe Data Response

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13 September 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support

Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3. Elsewhere, Tanzania secured financing from the IMF this in a further sign of good start by the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan. Finally, the sharp fall in the birr this year drove Ethiopia’s inflation rate to 30.4% y/y in August. Currency weakness and the growing threat of an all-out civil war have increased the risk of a sovereign default.
CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021
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