Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future

An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale sanctions relief for Russia would be the most positive for its financial markets and growth outlook, although we still wouldn’t expect a complete reset in US-Russia relations. A deal that lacks adequate security guarantees for Ukraine would likely hold back the country’s reconstruction significantly and limit the potential to unlock much faster rates of GDP growth in the future.