OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just over 4% this week. Trump's fresh twist is clearly an upside risk for the oil market, but the door has been left open that those tariffs and resulting oil market disruption never see the light of day. In any case, there are several factors that may dampen any impact on the oil market if India did stop purchasing Russian oil.
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