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China’s commodity demand to remain weak in Q1

The December survey data out of China were uniformly downbeat. The plunge in the official services PMI points to a fall in oil demand, but we suspect that the hit to industrial activity (and metals demand) has been more modest. Looking ahead, we expect China’s commodity demand to remain soft in Q1 given the ongoing downturn in the property sector, the wave of virus infections and sluggish export demand.

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