The prices of most commodities, with the exception of agriculturals, rose this week. Data showing strong Chinese import demand gave a boost to the prices of industrials, while a further drop in US crude stocks boosted oil prices. What’s more, US inflation data, released on Friday, were weak again in June suggesting that the chances of a September rate hike are fading. The tone of commodity markets next week might be set on Monday with the release of China’s June activity, retail sales and fixed asset investment data. We forecast somewhat slower growth in industrial production and investment. Later in the week, we expect the ECB to reiterate its intention to taper QE at its meeting on Thursday, but interest rates will be left unchanged.
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