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PMIs (Jan.)

There were some gains in economic momentum at the start of 2024, at least judging by the modest rise in the PMIs. Admittedly, the survey readings are still depressed by historic standards, but this seems to partly reflect sentiment effects - in previous months the hard data held up better than the PMIs had suggested. We think growth will recover further in the near-term thanks to policy support. But the current approach to stimulus won't address the economy's structural problems, which will continue to weigh on medium-term growth.

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