China Economics

China Watch

5 December, 2017

What to expect in 2018

We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual growth of 4.5% in 2018, compared with the above-trend 6.0% achieved this year. We also believe that this slowdown will trigger a loosening of monetary policy, in contrast to the widely-held view that efforts to contain credit risks will keep interest rates high.

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