We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure

Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year.
Jonathan Petersen Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Capital Daily

Capital Daily

We think Brazil’s financial markets will remain under pressure

While Brazil’s financial markets have now fallen a long way, we don’t expect them to rebound any time soon.

22 October 2021

Capital Daily

Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes

The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President Erdogan probably means that further cuts are on the horizon, and so we expect the lira to continue to lose ground against the US dollar over the next couple of years.

21 October 2021

Capital Daily

Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds

Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the yields of 10-year government bonds to rise at least a little in most major DMs over that time. We anticipate that the increase will be the largest in the US, where we think inflationary pressures are strongest.

20 October 2021

More from Jonathan Petersen

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar edges higher ahead of the September FOMC meeting

The dollar has risen against most currencies as markets have remained quiet ahead of next week’s monetary policy announcements. In addition to the FOMC, more than a dozen central banks in developed and emerging market economies will meet during a week that may set the tone for FX markets over the coming months. While we doubt that the FOMC will set out a plan for tapering its asset purchases, the new economic projections may shed some light on its reaction function given building cyclical inflationary pressures. Our view remains that inflation in the US will stay elevated for longer than the FOMC and investors currently anticipate, in turn supporting higher US yields and a stronger dollar.

17 September 2021

FX Markets Update

Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie

We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be the main drivers of the Canadian dollar, and will push it lower against the US dollar over the next few years. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Canada service

17 September 2021

FX Markets Update

What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets

The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate much further. We think the currencies of some economies with strong ties to China will come under pressure, too.

16 September 2021
↑ Back to top