We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over

Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.  
Jonathan Petersen Markets Economist
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We think Brazil’s financial markets will remain under pressure

While Brazil’s financial markets have now fallen a long way, we don’t expect them to rebound any time soon.

22 October 2021

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Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes

The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President Erdogan probably means that further cuts are on the horizon, and so we expect the lira to continue to lose ground against the US dollar over the next couple of years.

21 October 2021

Capital Daily

Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds

Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the yields of 10-year government bonds to rise at least a little in most major DMs over that time. We anticipate that the increase will be the largest in the US, where we think inflationary pressures are strongest.

20 October 2021

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FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar remains on the back foot after August payrolls

The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies, leaving the trade-weighted dollar near its lowest level since its jump after the June FOMC meeting

3 September 2021

FX Markets Update

We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound

We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months.

2 September 2021

Capital Daily

We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last

We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies will be short-lived, and that most will fall further against the US dollar this year.

24 August 2021
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