The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however, we doubt that the Bank would risk raising rates again this year. Trade competitiveness challenges remain a major obstacle to economic growth. And we still fear that the worst effects from the housing downturn, triggered by past interest rate hikes and tougher mortgage rules, lie ahead.
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