Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year

The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will undergo a brief soft patch before picking up during the second-half of next year. We disagree. Instead, we still foresee a protracted period of economic weakness across most advanced economies, which will ultimately drag-down commodity prices and global inflation. As such, we now believe the Bank will eventually cut its key policy rate around the middle of next year, from 1.00% to 0.50%.