Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in oil prices and a sharp correction in the housing market could, in a worst case scenario, trigger a recession. That said, our central scenario is that GDP growth will slow from 2.4% in 2014 to 2.0% in 2015 and only 1.0% in 2016.
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