My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

RBA may only hike in 2023

While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
Continue reading

More from Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year

Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as fast as the RBA would like them to. But with even employers supporting a large minimum wage hike, we now expect the Fair Work Commission to lift the minimum wage by 4% next month. While that would reduce the hit to household incomes from soaring living costs, it would add to the upward pressure on inflation. ANZ Drop-in (19th May, 07:00 BST/14:00 SGT): Join economists from our Australia and Markets services shortly after the release of Q1 labour market data on 18th May for a discussion about the Australian growth, inflation and monetary policy outlook. Register now.

13 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

New Zealand - Wage growth will rise further before it falls

The 6% rise in the minimum wage will help lift wage growth further this year. But a loosening labour market and smaller minimum wage hikes in the years ahead will facilitate a slow down in wage growth from next year. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

11 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now

The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade, consumption and GDP growth will fall below trend in 2024, prompting the RBA to cut interest rates. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

9 May 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economics Weekly

Race for next PM wide open after Suga’s resignation

The resignation of Prime Minister Suga could mark a return to the tradition of short-lived leaders that characterised Japan’s political system before Abenomics. Even so, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition is still likely to win the Lower House election due by end-November and the new PM will probably keep fiscal policy very loose.

3 September 2021

RBA Watch

RBA to stay the course

The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up its asset purchases will provide much help and we expect it to stick to its plan of tapering its asset purchases to $4bn at the upcoming meeting.

1 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q2 2021)

The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month.

1 September 2021
↑ Back to top