Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote refinery and President Tinubu’s broader plans to reboot the refining sector would, if successful, lead to a modest improvement in the trade balance. But these are not silver bullets. Policy reforms, most notably allowing the naira to reach fair value, are still the long-term solutions to Nigeria’s balance of payments problems.
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