Commodities Update

What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal?

This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for...

26th February 2025 (Updated 1st May 2025) · 5 mins read

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Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging

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Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e

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Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences

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Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?

Global Economics

Shipping Disruption Dashboard: New Charts on Baltimore

Click here to visit our Shipping Disruption Dashboard, which we have updated and extended to include analysis of the Baltimore port closure.

28th March 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics

Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

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Drop-In: OPEC’s surprise cut – Economics, markets, geopolitics 

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In the wake of the surprise move by OPEC+ to cut oil production, we held a special online briefing about the decision’s economic and market implications – as well as what this signals about global

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Global Drop-In – A year of disinflation

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Economists from our Global Economics service held a special discussion about the trajectory of inflation across advanced and emerging economies in 2023.

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Global Drop-In: Recession looms as tightening bites

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Our Global Economics team held a 20-minute online briefing on the outlook for the global economy and policy on Tuesday, 8th November.

Global Economics

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to...

8th August 2022 · 3 mins read

Global Economics

The global implications of a slowdown in China

The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some...

23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read

Global Economics

Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs

The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their...

23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read

Global Economics

Can we trust the business surveys?

A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why...

13th April 2021 · 5 mins read

Global Economics

The implications of sustained travel restrictions

Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be...

18th February 2021 · 4 mins read

Global Economics

Trackers suggest the global recovery is stumbling

While high-frequency mobility data should be interpreted with caution, they are now consistent with a marked slowdown in the pace of recovery, dashing hopes of a V-shaped rebound in the world economy.

5th August 2020 · 3 mins read