US Commercial Property
...

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
Continue reading

More from US Commercial Property

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Industrial overvalued, but supported by rental outlook

Rising equity earnings yields and government bond yields squeezed property valuations in Q3. While pricing still looks reasonable at the all-property level, the industrial sector is starting to look overvalued on a historical basis, with yield falls showing no sign of slowing. At this stage, we think that industrial valuations are justified by the sector’s solid prospects for rental growth. But we expect 10-Year Treasury yields will rise to 1.6% by end-2021 and 2.25% by end-2022, which will squeeze property valuations further.

24 November 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Are migration trends also driving industrial?

Data show a vast divergence in performance across the industrial sector over the last year. While some of the strength is consistent with that in the apartment and office sectors, driven by migration to the South, others have been supported by sector-specific factors.

23 November 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Structural changes weigh on offices more than retail

Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector more than retail over the next few years, helping to make offices the worst performing sector in this period.

19 November 2021

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Student accommodation not set to see a rapid rebound

The student accommodation sector faces high levels of uncertainty for the fall 2021 academic year. In our view, demand for student housing will rebound from last year, but fall short of its pre-pandemic peak. Overall, we expect vacancy to nudge higher and rental values to edge back this year.

25 June 2021
↑ Back to top