Should we be worried about rental arrears?

The early evidence suggests that the end of the evictions moratorium will not result in a huge wave of evictions. And while the end of the furlough scheme presents a risk, we suspect that the easing of restrictions will have allowed the economy to recover enough by that point to keep tenants in both their jobs and their homes.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
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More from UK Housing

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Prices to continue rising as stamp duty holiday elapses

There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold their ground in Q4 when stamp duty returns to normal. Moreover, with elevated household saving still supporting deposits, mortgage rates falling as competition between banks intensifies, and many households reassessing their homes in light of remote working we suspect demand will continue to surprise to the upside. Indeed, web search activity increased in September suggesting that the inevitable dip in transactions in Q4 will be short-lived. As a result, we expect house prices to rise by 10% y/y in Q4 2021 and by 5% in Q4 2022, above the consensus of 6% and 3.5% respectively.

21 September 2021

UK Housing Market Update

House price boom has further to run

The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up our forecast for house price growth in 2022 from 3% to 5%.

16 September 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q2 21)

The further surge in mortgage lending to a fresh post-financial-crisis high and booming house prices begs the question whether there is over-exuberance in the housing market. But as the surge has been driven by a jump in home moving as opposed to riskier lending there isn’t yet cause for concern.

14 September 2021

More from Andrew Wishart

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.)

Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we think that house prices will prove resilient to the inevitable dip in transactions after the stamp duty holiday.

8 July 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jun.)

While we would be wary of reading too much into the small decline in house prices in June reported by Halifax, timely measures of house prices are consistent in pointing to a moderation in house price growth.

7 July 2021

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.)

Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above pre-virus levels.

6 July 2021
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