Skip to main content

House price growth to cool but not collapse

There are already signs that the end of the stamp duty holiday will take some heat out of the housing market, with house price inflation set to cool from 10% to 7% by the end of the year. But as we think that the tax break was just one of several factors behind the current boom, we expect house price inflation to cool rather than collapse. Remarkably limited damage to the labour market from the recession, and low and declining mortgage rates mean that house prices are likely to rise by about 3% y/y in both 2022 and 2023, stronger than expected by the consensus.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access