Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best guess is that the Spring statement will contain a package of no more than £10bn in 2022/23 (1.0% of GDP). We’ve incorporated that in our GDP growth forecasts, which we have revised down this week to reflect the extra drag on activity from even higher inflation.
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