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Still running ahead of the pack

As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its comparative success in containing the virus has allowed it to start to ease restrictions already. While the decision to discontinue use of the AstraZeneca jab means it may have to tread a bit more carefully from here, our 2021 GDP forecast is above the consensus. More generally, having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics will get back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro-zone.

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