Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next to no chance of the SNB tightening policy anytime soon, and the big question mark is when it might intervene.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Green bond germination in Denmark

The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of investor demand for green debt. Next week, the main data release of note is the preliminary release of Sweden’s Q4 GDP, which we expect will show that output rose by 1.1% q/q.

21 January 2022

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Norges Bank will resume hikes in March

After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and reiterated that it “will most likely be raised in March”. We think it will raise rates four times this year, to 1.5%.

20 January 2022

Nordic & Swiss Chart Book

Riksbank to have to change tack

The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in the other direction.

17 January 2022

More from Michael Tran

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.)

The second successive monthly decline in industrial production, in September, means that production was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2. As supply-chain difficulties are likely to persist for some time, the outlook for manufacturing in the coming quarters is very weak.

12 November 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with their plan to raise interest rates again in December.

10 November 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.)

While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly at the start of Q4.

29 October 2021
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