OPEC+ meeting, Egypt and the IMF, Fed decision

Next week’s OPEC+ meeting may provide the first hints of the group’s production policy beyond September and if, as we expect, it opts to remove quotas, the Gulf stands to benefit most. Elsewhere, the IMF’s positive assessment of Egypt’s 2020 deal seemed to go soft on policymakers’ handling of the pound in recent years. The good news is that the central bank seems to have adopted a flexible exchange rate more recently and we think the currency has further to fall. And finally, Gulf central banks followed the Fed in hiking interest rates today and notably Saudi Arabia reverted to a 75bp hike as liquidity constraints have eased in the past month.

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