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Colombia: BanRep to hike despite Q2 GDP drop

The sharper-than-expected 2.4% q/q fall in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 was largely due to protest-related disruption in May and masked a strong rebound in output at the end of the quarter. The economic recovery appears to be progressing well so far in Q3, so we still expect that the central bank (BanRep) will begin a tightening cycle at its next meeting in September with a 25bp rate hike (to 2.00%).

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