Oil prices, inflation compensation and Treasury yields

Although oil prices and inflation compensation have historically moved in lockstep, we don’t think our projection that oil prices will fall over the next couple of years is inconsistent with our forecast for long-term Treasury yields to rise quite a bit.
Thomas Mathews Markets Economist
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EM Markets Chart Book

We think China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z

While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove more persistent in the former than in the latter two.

17 September 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

17 September 2021

More from Thomas Mathews

Capital Daily

Stress tests, the financial sector and bond yields

We think the positive results from the Federal Reserve’s stress tests remove an obstacle to higher bond yields, while reinforcing the positive outlook for the financial sector.

29 June 2021

EM Markets Chart Book

We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields

We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here.

29 June 2021

Global Markets Update

We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise again

Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long.

24 June 2021
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