A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy. Nonetheless, we still think that world GDP growth is likely to be reasonably strong this year. Indeed, the latest global business surveys suggest that growth is only slightly below its long-run average rate. Meanwhile, although the Ukraine crisis is a reminder that there are plenty of risks around, we doubt that it will have major ramifications beyond the borders of Russia and Ukraine itself.
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