The pace of policy tightening has increased still further, with many central bankers arguing that rate hikes must be “frontloaded” to tackle inflation risks quickly. In the current environment, this probably does offer the best chance of avoiding a future hard landing for most economies. And given evidence so far that activity is slowing but not slumping as policy tightens, aggressive rate hikes seem set to continue in the near term. But while this policy may reduce the threat from inflation in the medium term, it carries big economic risks in the near term, particularly where household debt is high and house prices are elevated.
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