ECB has done the easy bit, harder work is to come

This week, the ECB arrested the sell-off in peripheral bond markets without announcing very much at all, but there’s only so long that markets will be soothed by encouraging words about a possible anti-fragmentation tool. We think there is a significant risk that it will disappoint at the next meeting on 21^st July. Meanwhile, the polls suggest that President Macron’s group is far from guaranteed to win a majority in parliament following the second round of voting this weekend. But in that event, support from centre-right parties should avoid a lame-duck presidency. Markets Drop-In (22^nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now