The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation potentially weighing on the recovery, we expect the first business surveys for August, published next week, to show a slowdown in the pace of growth. Meanwhile, next Thursday the ECB will publish the account of July’s policy meeting, which might reveal more detail on the range of views about the Bank’s new forward guidance.
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