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High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption

We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the year.
Edward Gardner Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

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We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Edward Gardner

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude oil stocks rose last week on higher imports, lower exports and less crude oil being used by refineries. Implied product demand, meanwhile, was little changed and towards the lower end of its seasonal range. High prices for gasoline and diesel will probably constrain demand in coming weeks.

4 May 2022

Energy Update

EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard

The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this year, which in turn would keep oil prices over $100 per barrel. But unless natural gas prices plunge and/or there are secondary sanctions on Russian oil, this won’t cause major pain for Russia’s economy immediately. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service.

4 May 2022

Commodities Update

Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks

Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas prices historically high for months to come. The move also raises the risk of gas shortages in Poland and Bulgaria, especially Bulgaria which is relatively less well prepared. Euro-zone stagflation risks have risen, too. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Update to clients of our Energy, European Economics and Emerging Europe Economics Services .

27 April 2022
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