The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle. Elsewhere, the appointment of Cezary Kochalski to Poland’s MPC is unlikely to significantly alter the path for interest rates – we think that rising inflation will prevent interest rates being lowered amid further signs of an economic slowdown. Finally, the IMF delivered a damning verdict on Turkey in its latest Article IV consultation.
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