Booster jabs accelerate as virus cases surge in Israel

The spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant has driven a sharp rise in virus cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Israel this month. Evidence of waning vaccine efficacy prompted the government to roll out third booster jabs at the start of August and these will probably become the norm in most countries. The good news is that there is preliminary evidence to suggest that the third booster jab is effective against infection and the government has been able to stick to relatively light-touch social distancing measures.
Liam Peach Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture?

Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public finances is that the pressure on the central bank to focus on growth is matched by a shift to a looser fiscal stance, causing the debt dynamics to worsen.

25 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength

The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the very near term, we think that Israel’s macro fundamentals will support further appreciation over the next few years. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Europe Update to clients of our FX Markets service.

24 November 2021

More from Liam Peach

Emerging Europe Data Response

Israel GDP (Q2 2021)

The larger-than-expected 15.4% annualised expansion in Israeli GDP in Q2 took the economy to more than 3% above its pre-pandemic level. While we expect growth to slow markedly in Q3 as the re-opening boost fades, Israel’s central bank will be comforted by the strength of the recovery and we think it will continue to signal the phasing out of some of its emergency support measures over the rest of the year.

16 August 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q2 2021)

The larger-than-expected 10.3% y/y expansion in Russian GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic level as growth was driven by broad-based strength across sectors. Growth is likely to slow in Q3, but the key story is that the recovery will maintain a solid pace over the rest of the year.

13 August 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again

Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may struggle to pass in its current form. Meanwhile, another strong set of inflation data for July released across Emerging Europe this week will only amplify hawkish voices at central banks and means that the direction of policy is towards further monetary tightening.

13 August 2021
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