Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake?

This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened) President Erdogan. The vote is unlikely to have much impact on the near-term economic outlook – growth is likely to slow sharply in the coming months regardless of the election outcome. But a victory for President Erdogan and the AKP would add to the reasons to think the longer-term outlook will be marked by slower growth, higher inflation and a weaker currency.