My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Russia GDP (Q1 2022)

The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western sanctions bite hard. For 2022 as a whole, we’ve pencilled in a 12% contraction in Russia’s economy, which would be the steepest downturn since the 1990s.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage

Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional macroeconomic impact. Sanctions have already done the damage and locked Russia out of global capital markets.

27 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Governments collapse, Russia set to default

Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability also puts EU fund inflows and the ability to secure gas supplies at risk. Elsewhere, a 30-day grace period for Russia’s government to make interest payments on Eurobonds ends on Sunday. While Russia has signalled that it is willing to make the payments in rubles, this would be a breach of the contract and could mark Russia’s first default on foreign currency debt since the Bolshevik revolution.

24 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT: knock knock, anybody there?

High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00% today. Disorderly falls in the lira are a major risk, which would probably be met with capital controls rather than rate hikes.

23 June 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Mar.)

South Africa’s activity data for March were weak and that was even before flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province dealt a fresh blow to the economy. Inflation figures released earlier today may have increased the risk of a 50bp interest rate hike tomorrow but, with the recovery likely to remain slow and bumpy, we continue to think that rates will be raised more slowly than most expect over the next couple of years.

18 May 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate remained close to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in April, at 5.9% y/y, and will stay there over the coming months. Tomorrow’s interest rate decision will be a close call between a 25bp (our forecast) and a 50bp hike but, given the slow and bumpy recovery, we continue to think that rates will be raised more slowly than investors expect over 2022-24.

18 May 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.)

Turkey’s activity data for March suggest that the economy held up better than expected in Q1 as a weak lira appears to have supported industry, while policies to preserve households’ purchasing power have limited the downturn in retail sales. But spillovers from the war in Ukraine mean that, for now, we are sticking with our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.3% this year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.  

13 May 2022
↑ Back to top