The prices of most commodities rose this week, supported by a pick-up in risk appetite towards risky assets, such as US equities. Oil prices were the top performer, increasing by around 10% in part due to supply concerns. Nevertheless, we expect oil prices to remain stuck in narrow range around $45 per barrel through to the end of this year, as vast global stocks will hold back any significant price gains.
Next week attention will be back on China, where trade data are released on Tuesday. We expect that the data will point to export growth heading even higher (and above consensus) on the back of the strong rebound in retail sales in China’s main trading partners. What’s more, we suspect that import growth probably picked up too, and by more than the consensus anticipates. If these data are in line with our forecasts, then this could prove supportive of commodity prices, particularly industrial metals.
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