Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and signs of recovery in the US rig count. We have been stressing the downside risks for some time and are now lowering our end-2015 oil price forecasts. However, gold has failed to benefit from safe-haven demand to the extent that we had expected, so we are cutting our forecasts for precious metals too.
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