Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith that a disorderly Greek default can be avoided. But all of these supports are fragile and we expect sentiment to turn negative again during the course of the year, causing large falls in the prices of crude oil, industrial metals and many agriculturals. The biggest downside risk is the prospect that the euro will break apart. In this scenario, the only clear winner would be gold.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services