Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery

Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery

The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in infrastructure spending in the coming months.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
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China Data Response

China PMIs (Jul.)

The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of price gains and weighing on activity in industry and construction. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

2 August 2021

China Economics Weekly

Delta putting zero-COVID approach under strain

China’s ability to quash COVID flare-ups is being tested again:  the Delta variant outbreak that was identified in Nanjing last week has already spread further within China than any since the first that emerged from Wuhan. But the bigger challenge it poses is to China’s long-term strategy of keeping COVID infections as close to zero as possible.

30 July 2021

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen.

30 July 2021

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (May)

Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and retail sales accelerating. While there is still scope for a further recovery in consumption, we think investment and exports are set to cool over the coming months.

16 June 2021

China Economics Weekly

US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy

The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities with Beijing’s controversial Made in China 2025 plan. But despite some overlap, China’s industrial policies clearly remain far broader in scope and run a much greater risk of hindering rather than helping productivity growth. Another burgeoning area of US-China competition is vaccine diplomacy. Here China has the clear lead, at least in terms of the quantity of vaccine exports. And the ongoing surge in domestic production and vaccination rates means that China could soon flood the world with doses on a far larger scale than other countries, including the US.

11 June 2021

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)

Broad credit growth continued to slide in May and is now at its slowest since February last year. Evidence of policy tightening weighing on borrowing is clearest in bank loan growth which, apart from during last year’s lockdown, is at its weakest in nearly two decades. This will become a headwind to the economy in the second half of the year.

10 June 2021
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