Officials are struggling to balance a raft of conflicting goals spanning everything from GDP growth, zero-COVID, exchange rate stability, deleveraging and regulation. We don’t expect much compromise on zero-COVID. In other respects, we expect a fudge: a temporary tempering of regulatory and credit concerns, and enough stimulus to prevent a deep slump. Our forecast for growth this year is 2%. If COVID can’t be controlled, even that isn’t guaranteed.
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