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Australia GDP (Q2 2021)

The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (May 2022)

The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead.

29 June 2022

RBA Watch

RBA to keep hiking by 50bp for now

The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably lift the cash rate by another 50bp in July and August before reverting to smaller 25bp hikes. However, the risks are tilted towards a prolonged period of aggressive tightening and rates may well peak above our current forecast of 3%.

28 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

More 50bp hikes coming

We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow concerned that wage growth will be too strong to allow the Bank to meet its target. And the RBA is still lagging behind a number of its peers in its hiking cycle. We therefore expect the RBA to hike rates to a peak of 3.1%, higher than the analyst consensus of a peak of 2.60%.

24 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (Jul. 2021)

While retail sales recovered further in July, the high frequency data point to a renewed fall in August as the Delta wave intensified and we’ve pencilled in a 0.8% drop in private consumption in Q3.

30 August 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2021)

Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the worsening Delta outbreak may yet result in a fall in consumption this quarter. And with supply shortages intensifying, the manufacturing sector isn’t stepping into the breach.

23 August 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)

The subdued 0.4% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q2 underlines that the tight labour market didn’t generate large cost pressures even before the latest virus restrictions.

18 August 2021
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