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We doubt that 2022-23 will be as rewarding as 2021

2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled, against a backdrop of growing political risks. However, industrial commodities have surged, the US stock market has delivered strong returns, and US Treasuries have been remarkably resilient considering this year’s surprisingly sharp rise in inflation. We estimate that a 60:40 portfolio of global equities and developed market government bonds has returned ~9% in US dollar terms this year so far.

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