Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support

Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3. Elsewhere, Tanzania secured financing from the IMF this in a further sign of good start by the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan. Finally, the sharp fall in the birr this year drove Ethiopia’s inflation rate to 30.4% y/y in August. Currency weakness and the growing threat of an all-out civil war have increased the risk of a sovereign default.
CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Africa

Africa Economics Weekly

Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat

A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. A tightening of local containment measures is likely to follow, dampening economic activity, and the threat of a new virus wave will linger.
Drop-In: The B.1.1.529 strain – The economic and markets impact 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Friday 26th November Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing will be joined by senior economists from across our services at 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT today to give their views and answer your questions about the potential economic and markets impact of this new virus strain. Click here to register and to submit your questions ahead of the session. 

26 November 2021

Africa Economics Update

CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates to be raised imminently, we have pencilled in 200bp of hikes over 2022-23.

23 November 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

African central banks and the EM rate hike club

This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as central banks across Emerging Europe and Latin America. Elsewhere, a further fall in inflation last month and soft Q3 GDP figures mean that Nigeria’s central bank is unlikely to join the EM rate hike club any time soon.

19 November 2021

More from Jason Tuvey

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances that the economy contracts over Q3 as a whole.

9 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q2)

South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at the start of Q3 and the recovery is likely to be slow going from here on. This, combined with subdued inflation, means that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates later than most currently expect.

7 September 2021

Middle East Economics Weekly

OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight

This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further. Meanwhile, the further fall in virus cases in the UAE in recent weeks has prompted officials to ease restrictions as the start of the World Expo nears, but the past week has also brought a reminder that Dubai’s troubles with its large corporate debts are far from over.

2 September 2021
↑ Back to top