Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible?

Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large restructuring and stick to the fiscal consolidation that will be needed to leave the public debt ratio on an even keel.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Update

CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery. We think that the current accommodative policy stance is unlikely to change in the coming months, but rate hikes will probably come onto the agenda in the second half of 2022.

25 January 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike

A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for the next 12-18 months are still more dovish than most investors'.

21 January 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Nov.)

November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal economic damage last month. But even so, the recovery this year will remain stuck in the slow lane.

19 January 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider economy.

1 December 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat

A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. A tightening of local containment measures is likely to follow, dampening economic activity, and the threat of a new virus wave will linger.
Drop-In: The B.1.1.529 strain – The economic and markets impact 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Friday 26th November Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing will be joined by senior economists from across our services at 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT today to give their views and answer your questions about the potential economic and markets impact of this new virus strain. Click here to register and to submit your questions ahead of the session. 

26 November 2021

Africa Economics Update

CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift

The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates to be raised imminently, we have pencilled in 200bp of hikes over 2022-23.

23 November 2021
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