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Big shifts in monetary policy unlikely in the first half of 2013

A combination of renewed optimism over the state of the global economy and an acceleration in regional inflation suggests that the interest rate cuts that had looked imminent in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa only a few months ago may now be held back for later in the year. The notable exception to this is likely to be Kenya, where we expect rates to be cut at the central bank’s meeting next week.

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