Central Bank Hub
Your one-stop-shop guide to our insight into global monetary policymaking. Here you'll find links to our latest research, as well as policy rate and balance sheet forecasts, for the world's major developed and emerging market central banks.
Click on the country/economy name to view the latest central bank research
| Links to latest research | Next meeting | Policy rate (%) | Next change | End-2023 (%) | End-2024 (%) | Balance sheet |
| US | 22 Mar. | 4.50-4.75 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 4.00-4.25 | 2.75-3.00 | Quantitative tightening likely to be paused in late 2023 as interest rates are cut. |
| Euro-zone | 16 Mar. | 2.50 | +50bp (Mar. 2023) | 3.50 | 2.50 | Balance sheet to shrink by €15bn per month from March to June, with pace of run-down likely to accelerate thereafter. |
| Japan | 20 Mar. | -0.10 | None on horizon | -0.10 | -0.10 | We expect the Bank to end Yield Curve Control in April, which should result in a rapid shrinking of its balance sheet as bonds mature. |
| UK | 23 Mar. | 4.00 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
BoE selling £10bn of gilts per quarter. |
| Canada | 8 Mar. | 4.50 | -25bp (Sep. 2023) | 3.50 | 2.50 | Stopped reinvesting maturing bonds in April 2022. Active bond sales are unlikely as a large share mature within first two years. |
| Australia | 7 Mar. | 3.35 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 3.60 | 3.10 | Bank will allow bond holdings to run off, but no outright sales. |
| Switzerland | 23 Mar. | 1.00 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 1.25 | 0.75 | A reduction in size to support the franc. |
| Sweden | 25 Apr. | 3.00 |
+50bp (Apr. 2023) |
3.00 | 2.50 | Asset sales underway and balance sheet will shrink by ~SEK200bn in both 2023 and 2024. |
| Norway | 23 Mar. | 3.00 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 3.00 | 2.50 | – |
| New Zealand | 5 Apr. | 4.75 | +25bp (Apr. 2023) | 4.75 | 2.75 | RBNZ to sell $5bn of its bond holdings every fiscal year. |
| China | - | 2.00 | -10bp (Q3 2023) | 1.80 | 1.80 | – |
| India | 6 Apr. | 6.50 | 0bp (Apr. 2023) | 6.50 | 5.75 | – |
| Brazil | 22 Mar. | 13.75 | -50bp (Q4 2023) | 12.75 | 10.00 | – |
| Russia | 17 Mar. | 7.50 | +50bp (Q2. 2023) | 8.00 | 7.25 | – |
| Mexico | 30 Mar. | 11.00 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 10.25 | 8.25 | – |
| South Korea | 11 Apr. | 3.50 | -25bp (H2. 2023) | 2.75 | 2.50 | – |
| Turkey | 2 Mar. | 9.00 |
+500bps (H2 2023) |
27.00 | 27.00 | – |
| Indonesia | 16 Mar. | 5.75 |
-25bp (Q1 2024) |
5.75 | 4.75 | – |
| Poland |
8 Mar. |
6.75 | +0bp (Mar. 2023) | 6.50 | 6.00 | – |
| South Africa | 28 Mar. | 7.25 | +25bp (Mar. 2023) | 6.75 | 6.00 | – |
The signs of shifting cycles Our latest Global Central Bank Watch sifts through the historical evidence to show there's nothing typical about monetary policy cycles and explains how to spot when central banks cycles are shifting.
The evolution of central banking
Read key selections from our in-depth analysis about how we expect monetary policymaking to change.
