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Central Bank Hub

Your one-stop-shop guide to global monetary policymaking. Here you'll find links to our latest research, as well as policy rate and balance sheet forecasts, for the world's major developed and emerging market central banks.  

Click on the country/economy name to view the latest central bank research

Links to latest research Next meeting Policy rate (%) Next change End-2023 (%) End-2024 (%) Balance sheet
US 1 Nov. 5.25-5.50 No change 5.25-5.50 3.25-3.50 Quantitative tightening likely to be paused in late 2024 as interest rates are cut.
Euro-zone 26 Oct. 4.00 -25bp (Sep. 2024) 4.00 3.25 Balance sheet to shrink by €15bn per month from March to June, with pace of run-down likely to accelerate thereafter.
Japan 31 Oct. -0.10 No change -0.10 0.10 Yield Curve Control to remain in place until the Bank publishes its policy review next year
UK 2 Nov. 5.25 -25bp (Nov. 2024) 5.25 4.75

BoE reducing stock of government bond holdings by £100bn (£50bn of maturities and £50bn of active sales) over the period from October 2023 to September 2024.

Canada 25 Oct. 5.00 -50bp (Jan. 2024) 5.00 3.00 Bonds roll off the balance sheet as they mature, with almost 30% of the Bank’s holdings set to mature between mid-2023 and the end of 2024. The Bank has hinted that it will bring QT to a close around the start of 2025, by when it should have reached its desired level of reserves
Australia 3 Oct.  4.10 -25bp (Mar. 2024) 4.10 3.10 We expect the RBA to pause quantitative tightening once the Bank begins to cut the cash rate from mid-2024
Switzerland 14 Dec. 1.75 No change 1.75 1.25 A reduction in size to support the franc.
Sweden 22 Nov. 4.00

+25bp (Dec. 2023)

4.25 3.25 Asset sales underway and balance sheet will shrink by ~SEK200bn in both 2023 and  2024.
Norway 2 Nov. 4.25 +25bp (Dec. 2023) 4.50 3.75
New Zealand 4 Oct. 5.50 -50bp (May 2024) 5.50 3.25 RBNZ to sell $5bn of its bond holdings every fiscal year.
             
China - 2.00

None on horizon

2.00 2.00
India 6 Oct. 6.50 -50bp (Feb. 2024) 6.50 5.50
Brazil 1 Nov. 12.75 -50bp (Nov. 2023) 11.75 9.50
Russia 27 Oct. 13.00 +100bp (Oct. 2023) 14.50 12.50
Mexico 28 Sep. 11.25 -25bp (Q4 2023) 11.00 9.00
South Korea 19 Oct. 3.50 -25bp (Oct. 2023) 3.00 2.50
Turkey 26 Oct. 30.00

+250bp (Oct. 2023)

35.00 35.00
Indonesia 19 Oct. 5.75

-25bp (Dec 2023)

5.50 4.75
Poland

4 Oct.

6.00 -25bp (Nov 2023) 5.75 4.75
South Africa 23 Nov. 8.25 -25bp (Q1 2024) 8.25 7.50
Dollar with falling market

Gauging the economic effects of banking turmoil: Our latest Global Central Bank Watch highlights the data that policymakers will be watching to judge the extent to which credit conditions are tightening. These indicators will be among the key determinants of future interest rate decisions.

Read this report