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Central Bank Hub

Your one-stop-shop guide to our insight into global monetary policymaking. Here you'll find links to our latest research, as well as policy rate and balance sheet forecasts, for the world's major developed and emerging market central banks.  

Click on the country/economy name to view the latest central bank research

Links to latest research Next meeting Policy rate (%) Next change End-2022 (%) End-2023 (%) End-2024 (%) Balance sheet
US 14 Dec. 3.75-4.00 +50bp (Dec. 2022) 4.25- 4.50 4.00-4.25 2.75-3.00 Balance sheet run-off has begun. Pace to reach $120bn per month next year
Euro-zone 15 Dec. 1.50 +50bp (Dec. 2022) 2.00 3.00 2.50 ECB will need to use its new Transmission Protection Instrument to keep peripheral spreads under control
Japan 20 Dec. -0.10 None on horizon -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Balance sheet will shrink slightly as emergency loans are repaid and continued large gross bond purchases are broadly offset by bond redemptions
UK 15 Dec. 3.00 +75bps (Dec. 2022)

3.75

5.00 3.25

BoE is currently selling around £10bn of gilts per quarter

Canada 7 Dec. 3.75 +25bp (Dec. 2022) 4.00 3.25 2.50 Stopped reinvesting maturing bonds in April. With 40% of the Bank’s holdings set to mature within two years, active bond sales are unlikely.
Australia 6 Dec.  2.85 +25bp (Dec. 2022) 3.10 3.60 3.10 Bank will allow bond holdings to run off, but no outright sales.
Switzerland 15 Dec. 0.5 +50bp (Dec. 2022) 1.00 1.25 0.75 Very little anticipated, unless franc appreciates
Sweden 9 Feb. 2.50

+50bp (Feb. 2022)

2.50 3.00 2.00 Asset sales to begin by end-2022
Norway 15 Dec. 2.50 +25bp (Dec. 2022) 2.75 3.00 2.50
New Zealand 22 Feb. 4.25 +75bp (Feb. 2022) 4.25 5.00 3.00 RBNZ to sell $5bn of it bond holdings every fiscal year
               
China - 2.00 -10bp (Q3 2023) 2.00 1.80 1.80
India 7 Dec. 5.90 +25bp (Dec. 2022) 6.15 6.40 5.75
Brazil 7 Dec. 13.75 -25bp (Q2 2023) 13.75 11.00 7.50
Russia 16 Dec. 7.50 -50bp (May. 2023) 7.50 7.00 6.50
Mexico 15 Dec. 10.00 +50bp (Dec. 2022) 10.50 9.00 7.00
South Korea 24 Nov. 3.00 +25bp (Nov. 2022) 3.25 2.50 2.25
Turkey 22 Dec. 9.00

0bps (Dec. 2022)

9.00 27.00 27.00
Indonesia 22 Nov. 5.25 +50bp (Q4 2022) 5.25 5.75 4.50
Poland

7 Dec.

6.75 +0bp (Dec. 2022) 6.75 6.50 5.00
South Africa 24 Nov. 6.25 +50bp (Nov. 2022) 7.00 7.80 6.50
Dollar with falling market

The signs of shifting cycles Our latest Global Central Bank Watch sifts through the historical evidence to show there's nothing typical about monetary policy cycles and explains how to spot when central banks cycles are shifting. 

Read this report