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Central Bank Hub

Your one-stop-shop guide to global monetary policymaking. Here you'll find links to our latest research, as well as policy rate and balance sheet forecasts, for the world's major developed and emerging market central banks.  

Click on the country/economy name to view the latest central bank research

Links to latest research Next meeting Policy rate (%) Next change End-2024 (%) End-2025 (%) Balance sheet
US 1 May 5.25-5.50 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 4.25-4.50 3.25-3.50 Quantitative tightening likely to be paused in late 2024 as interest rates are cut.
Euro-zone 11 Apr. 4.00 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 2.25 2.00 Balance sheet to shrink by €15bn per month from March to June, with pace of run-down likely to accelerate thereafter.
Japan 26 Apr. 0.10 None on horizon 0.10 0.10 Yield Curve Control to remain in place until the Bank publishes its policy review in the middle of next year.
UK 9 May 5.25 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 4.00 3.00

BoE reducing stock of government bond holdings by £100bn (£50bn of maturities and £50bn of active sales) over the period from October 2023 to September 2024.

Canada 5 Jun. 5.00 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 3.75 2.50 Bonds roll off the balance sheet as they mature, with almost 30% of the Bank’s holdings set to mature between mid-2023 and the end of 2024. The Bank has hinted that it will bring QT to a close around the start of 2025, by when it should have reached its desired level of reserves
Australia 7 May  4.35 -25bp (Q3 2024) 3.85 3.10 We expect the RBA to pause quantitative tightening once the Bank begins to cut the cash rate from mid-2024
Switzerland 20 Jun. 1.50 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 1.00 1.00 A reduction in size to support the franc.
Sweden 8 May 4.00

-25bp (May 2024)

3.00 2.50 Asset sales underway and balance sheet will shrink by ~SEK200bn in both 2023 and  2024.
Norway 3 May 4.50 -25bp (Jun 2024) 3.25 3.00
New Zealand 10 Jul. 5.50 -25bp (Q3 2024) 4.75 3.50 RBNZ to sell $5bn of its bond holdings every fiscal year.
             
China - 2.00

None on horizon

2.00 2.00
India 7 Jun. 6.50 -50bp (Aug. 2024) 5.75 5.50
Brazil 8 May. 10.75 -50bp (May 2024) 9.50 9.00
Russia 26 Apr. 16.00 -100bp (Q3 2024) 10.00 8.50
Mexico 9 May. 11.00 -25bp (Jun. 2024) 10.00 8.00
South Korea 12 Apr. 3.50 -25bp (May 2024) 2.50 2.25
Turkey 25 Apr. 50.00

+250bp (Apr. 2024)

52.50 32.50
Indonesia 24 Apr. 6.00

-25bp (Jun. 2024)

5.25 4.75
Poland

9 May.

5.75 -25bp (Q3 2025) 5.75 5.00
South Africa

30 May

8.25 -25bp (Q2 2024) 7.75 6.25
R star and the global economy

R* and the end of the ultra-low rates era

Explore our analysis about the path of equilibrium real interest rates through the 2020s 

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