Global Markets Update We doubt the recent rally marks a new dawn for Japan’s equities We don’t think that the recent strong gains in Japan’s equity market mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag other markets over the rest of... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for EM equities Emerging market equities have typically outperformed their developed market counterparts after US recessions. While we don’t foresee them replicating the sort of outperformance seen after the early... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Debt ceiling debacle threatens renewed turmoil While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries... 18th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think Gilts are poised to outperform We think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts in the UK next year. If we’re correct, that could propel Gilts to the top of the class for local-currency returns over the... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of a potential debt ceiling crisis We don’t think long-dated Treasuries are bound to fare worse than the S&P 500 in the coming weeks, even as the risk of US sovereign default looms larger. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Dialling back our optimism about Chinese equities With China’s economic rebound losing momentum and investors’ attention shifting back to concerns about the country’s political and economic model we think the near-term prospects for Chinese equities... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative resilience of US stock market is on shaky ground The underperformance of the US stock market seen last year has generally paused so far in 2023, as returns have been propped up by mega-cap “growth” stocks. That may continue over the rest of the year... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update More than pensions to the UK’s stock listings drought In our view, the role of UK pension funds in deterring firms from listing on the London Stock Exchange has been overstated of late. To the extent that higher valuations are the reason firms find a US... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some tweaks to our views on equities and currencies Resilience in much of the global economic data of late has raised questions over whether the recessions we expect in most developed markets (DMs) will materialise later than we had initially thought... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Growth stock valuations still look unsustainably high We would not be surprised if US “growth” stocks outperformed their “value” peers by a bit more in the near term. But we still suspect that growth will underperform value substantially over the longer... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Strains have eased but banks aren’t out of the woods yet Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. 14th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK stock market outperformance may not resume soon The UK stock market has been caught in the crossfire of recent sectoral trends in global equities, leading to a period of underperformance over the past month. Despite tentative signs of that going... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US stock market is not braced for a recession We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bank shares aren’t bound to underperform in a credit crunch Needless to say, economic downturns are usually bad news for US banks’ share prices. But banks haven’t always underperformed the overall stock market in a recession – even when there has been a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
